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August 1, 2005
More sabre-rattling on high-def DVDs
March on to war DVD dufuses!!!
Why is it easier to blow tens or hundreds of millions in putting another format war to what amounts to a consumer referendum than it is to agree on how this should be done?
I just saw another good article in the Seattle Times on the impending format war. (Link via Nate Elliot at Jupiter Research).
Elliot commented on something I think was a little misleading in the Seattle Times article. It mentioned that Sony didn't give up on its Betamax line until 2002 - which suggested some kind of blind obstinance on Sony's part. I think what should have been noted is that Beta's popularity as a professional broadcast format resulted in it being around long after it failed as a relevant consumer format.
Anyhow, I believe two things need to be noted:
1) This whole discussion is not far off rearranging decks chairs on the Titanic. Increases in internet download speeds are going to allow for new business models and direct download delivery. Anyone heard of iTunes? The same thing is shaping up to happen on video content. Yes, Hollywood is going to get dragged kicking and screaming like the music business did, but eventually they will "get it" and get on board with internet delivery. Who needs a disc at that point? Increases in capacity and bandwidth are going to make the whole thing largely irrelevant.
2) While consumers eyes are more discerning than their ears, I haven't seen much of a line of up people to get hi-fidelity audio CD's i.e. SACD. Most people haven't even heard of it. Why? Because CD's sound just fine to most people. How much better does it have to be to make people rush out and spend money? These days, most people are happy to download compressed audio (with its inherently lower quality although it's hardly discernable to most) for the sake of the convenience of using an electronic channel. Could the same apply, at least in part, to high-definition DVDs?
You can't see the difference of the format until you go and drop extra money on an HD capable display. All this adds up to a fair investment for most people and a format war is only going to serve to make people wary of making an investment at all.
So, the more of this kind of sabre-rattling that goes on, the more the HD DVD and Blu-ray camps only serve to undermine their own success, regardless of who wins.
Myself, I'm not going to be the first to buy one. One of these will have their day, but I don't think it's going to be a long-term proposition. It won't be that long until internet bandwidth and storage capacity make the whole matter of offline storage largely irrelevant.
So, have at it folks . . . if it's about ego, then get at it and get it over with. If it's about profit, I'd think it over a little and maybe try some counselling.
Posted by Derek Leverington at August 1, 2005 8:31 PM
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